What data need to be measured for a weather forecast? How did people successfully predict the weather in ancient times without technological conditions?
Time:2025/8/14 View:1142

In recent years, China has been accelerating the construction of meteorological modernization. At present, China has built the world's largest and most comprehensive integrated meteorological observation system. According to Liu Yaming, Administrator of the China Meteorological Administration, in terms of meteorological observation, all over 2,400 national-level ground meteorological observation stations across the country have realized automation, with nearly 60,000 regional automatic meteorological observation stations, covering 96% of towns and townships. China has successfully launched 17 Fengyun series meteorological satellites, 8 of which are in orbit. 198 new-generation Doppler weather radars form a tight meteorological disaster monitoring network, and professional meteorological monitoring networks for ecology, agriculture, ocean, transportation, tourism, etc., have been initially established. In terms of meteorological forecasting, China has built a refined and seamless modern meteorological forecast and prediction system, which can issue forecast and prediction products ranging from minutes, hours to months, seasons, years and even decadal seasons. Professional meteorological forecasting services for typhoons, heavy pollution weather, sandstorms, mountain flood geological disasters, etc., have been established. China has established a relatively complete meteorological comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation system, and built a national network of emergency early warning information release system. Warning information can cover 86.4% of the public within 8 to 10 minutes. For example, the warning time for severe convective weather has been advanced to 38 minutes, and the accuracy rate of rainstorm warnings has been increased to 88%. The proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters in GDP has decreased. "China's meteorological modernization drive has made leaping progress with earth-shaking changes. It has been officially recognized as a World Meteorological Centre by the World Meteorological Organization, becoming one of the 9 global World Meteorological Centres. This marks that the overall level of China's meteorological modernization has entered the world's advanced ranks," she said. Then do you know what system products a meteorological observation station generally needs to include? Composition of Meteorological Observation System Observation of Clouds Laser Ceilometer: It uses the method of irradiating cloud bodies with laser beams to measure the time between laser emission and reception, so as to calculate the distance of reflection points in the cloud, and determine the cloud amount by means of time integration. Micro-Pulse Lidar (MPL): It can measure the temporal and spatial distribution of cloud base and multi-layer clouds, the temporal and spatial distribution of the boundary layer, and the vertical distribution and temporal evolution of aerosols. Visibility Observation Forward Scattering Visibility Meter: The transmitter and receiver are placed at two positions with a certain angle and distance. The receiver receives the forward scattered light from the atmosphere. By measuring the intensity of scattered light, the scattering coefficient is obtained, so as to estimate the extinction coefficient. Transmissometer: It calculates visibility by measuring the average extinction coefficient of the horizontal air column between the transmitter and receiver. Weather Phenomenon Observation Weather Phenomenon Instrument: It is an intelligent multi-variable sensor, composed of a scattering visibility meter, a precipitation monitoring system sensor, and sensors for temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed, etc. It determines weather phenomena through logical analysis of these data variables. Lightning Locator: It uses the acoustic, optical, and electromagnetic field characteristics of lightning radiation to remotely measure lightning discharge parameters, and sends the preprocessed lightning data to the central data processing station in real time through the communication system for real-time intersection processing. It can record indicators such as the time, location, intensity, and polarity of lightning occurrences. Air Pressure Observation Silicon Capsule Capacitive Pressure Sensor: It uses a single crystal silicon film to make a vacuum capsule. The deformation of the upper and lower diaphragms of the capsule causes the displacement of the capacitor plates, thus changing the capacitance. Then, the air pressure is measured by measuring the change of capacitance. At present, the pressure sensor commonly used in China's automatic weather stations is an intelligent full-compensation digital pressure sensor, whose sensing element is silicon capacitance. The pressure sensor is installed in the collector chassis and connected to the outside atmosphere through a static pressure connecting pipe. Temperature Observation Platinum Resistance Temperature Sensor: The resistance value of platinum resistance changes with temperature. The temperature of the measured object is deduced by measuring its resistance value. Common Pt100 temperature-sensing elements include ceramic elements, glass elements, and mica elements, which are made by winding platinum wires on ceramic skeletons, glass skeletons, and mica skeletons respectively through complex processes. This type of sensor is used for measuring air temperature, grass surface temperature, shallow soil temperature, and deep soil temperature in meteorological observation stations. Humidity Observation Humidity-Sensitive Capacitor Humidity Sensor: It is a small capacitor using an organic polymer film as the medium. It is installed on a special bracket in the Stevenson screen, located at the center of the horizontal plane of the screen. The cable is穿入 from the bottom of the bracket into the pipe and taken out from the top of the pipe. The sensor is fixed in the clip of the cross arm, with the head facing down. When the external relative humidity changes, the polymer used as the humidity-sensitive film can absorb and release water vapor molecules, and its dielectric constant ε changes accordingly, which causes the capacitance of the humidity-sensitive capacitor to change. The capacitance change is converted into a voltage change, and the output voltage range is 0-1V. The relative humidity can be obtained by measuring the output voltage. Wind Observation Cup Anemometer: It uses a three-cup inductor. When the cups rotate, they drive the coaxial multi-tooth chopping disc to rotate, obtaining pulse signals proportional to the rotation speed of the cups. The actual wind speed is obtained after counting and conversion by the counter. Precipitation Observation Tipping Bucket Rain Gauge: The sensitive part is two triangular water buckets, which can rotate around the central axis. Each rotation, the moving magnet scans the reed switch once, and the two electrodes are closed to generate an electric pulse. The rainfall is recorded according to the number of tipping bucket rotations. At present, the ground meteorological observation system mostly uses tipping bucket rain sensors. Agricultural Meteorological Observation Equipment The agricultural meteorological automatic observation system conducts real-time observation of crops and their living environment (farmland, soil). According to business needs, it mainly collects farmland microclimate data, soil data, crop growth parameters, images, and real-time monitoring videos. The whole system can be powered by various ways such as agricultural electricity, solar energy, and wind energy, and can interact with the upper computer software through various communication methods such as optical fiber, 3G, WiFi, and microwave. The supporting agricultural meteorological observation automatic collection and comprehensive processing platform has functions such as sorting and storing observation data, setting station parameters, monitoring equipment operation status, log management, querying and displaying meteorological observation data, analyzing and early warning crop disasters, displaying crop growth, and uploading data. Traffic Meteorological Station The traffic meteorological observation station can accurately and timely monitor road environmental conditions, and can be combined with other monitoring subsystems of traffic management departments to realize an intelligent traffic guarantee network system. It can conduct real-time monitoring of various monitoring elements required by expressways such as fog, road icing, and snow. Looking at modern meteorological observation technology, there are not only many instruments but also satellites to assist, and the accuracy of weather prediction has been greatly improved. But in ancient times, there were no such high-tech products, so how did ancient people predict the weather? Ancient Chinese Meteorological Measurement Technology China is one of the earliest countries in the world to observe clouds and predict the weather. As early as more than 3,000 years ago, in the oracle bone inscriptions of the Yin Dynasty in China, there were written records expressing atmospheric phenomena such as wind, cloud, rainbow, rain, snow, and sleet. Ancient Chinese meteorological observation science and technology have always been at the world's leading level, making historic and significant contributions to the formation of world meteorological science and the development of technology. "The Bird That Flew a Millennium Earlier" published by Tsinghua University Press explains the great achievements in the meteorological field resulting from the collision of Chinese civilization and science and technology from multiple perspectives. Li Liangxu, Director of the Atmospheric探测 Center of the China Meteorological Administration, believes that the interesting and illustrated ancient Chinese meteorological technology presented in this book, as well as the advanced knowledge and wisdom in the process of all mankind's understanding of the weather, will make people in today's more advanced world of science and technology feel "amazing". In fact, the "24 solar terms" that amazed the world at the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are only part of what we are familiar with. There are many meteorological measurement methods in ancient China, with amazing "scientific and technological content". The Earliest Wind Vane On the fragments of oracle bone inscriptions from the Shang Dynasty, the character "风" (wind) can be seen borrowed as "凤" (phoenix). The ancestors believed that wind was the power from the sky that made the roc spread its wings. By the Warring States Period, the ancient people's understanding of wind had changed. In "Zhuangzi·Qi Wu Lun", there is a description that "The great earth exhales breath, and its name is wind". The character "风" in seal script no longer has the form of a bird in oracle bone inscriptions, but emphasizes the material state in the sky similar to clouds and qi, which is infinitely close to the modern scientific explanation of wind. Ancient people often used divination to measure the wind to decide on travel, war, etc. It was these understandings of the flow characteristics of wind that led to the invention and use of wind vanes. The wind vane is called "houfeng" or "xiangfeng". Researchers found the character "伣" in the oracle bone inscriptions of Yin Ruins, and some think it is "綄", which actually refers to a simple wind vane made of silk strips or crow feathers tied to a long pole. Xu Shen's annotation on "Huainanzi" says: "綄 is for observing wind, and the people of Chu call it wuliang (five liang)." "Wuliang" refers to a 綄 made of chicken feathers weighing five liang (or eight liang) hung on a flagpole. Even a little wind, the 綄 will move. Therefore, later there was the saying of "houfeng zhi yu" (feather for observing wind). The book "Lingtai Mi Yuan" compiled by Yu Jicai in the Northern Zhou Dynasty talked about the principle of "houfeng zhi yu", which is a simple wind vane. But the real protagonist of the ancient wind vane is the "xiangfeng tongwu" (bronze crow for observing wind), which has a profound impact on later meteorological instruments. This is an improved wind-observing wooden bird, that is, the chest of the wooden wind-observing bird is connected to a pivot, which is inserted into the center of a disc on top of a hollow wooden tube. When the wind blows, the rotation of the wooden bird drives the pivot to rotate in the hollow wooden tube under the disc, so that the wind direction and climate trends can be measured. Joseph Needham, a famous British science historian, once pointed out that the wind-observing bird "may be the forerunner of the modern four-cup anemometer". The earliest existing wind vane in China is an iron phoenix wind vane on top of a brick tower in Yuanjue Temple in Hunyuan County, Datong City, Shanxi Province. It has existed for 800 years and has never rusted. It does not drive a pivot but rotates around a fixed tower pole. When the wind blows the phoenix, the direction pointed by the phoenix's head can show the wind direction. Its original design is rare in ancient and modern times. According to expert research, the phoenix wind vane is the earliest and only existing physical object of an ancient tower anemometer in the country, which is extremely precious. The Earliest Existing Standard Rain Gauge There are many words in Chinese to describe the amount of rainfall, such as "piaopo dayu" (downpour), "qingpen dayu" (torrential rain), etc., which can prove that there were various rain gauges in ancient times. In "The Biography of Dongfang Shuo in the Former Han Dynasty", there are words such as "taking a ladle as the sea" and "taking a li as the sea". Here, the ladle refers to a container made by splitting a gourd for ladling water and holding wine, and li refers to a li sheng, a ladle with a capacity of one sheng. It is generally believed that the ladles and basins in these words played the role of rain gauges at that time. What is the function of a rain gauge? "Floods and droughts are celestial phenomena", and rainwater is the most important part of "celestial phenomena". Ancient people liked to pray for "favorable weather" during sacrifices because rainwater can irrigate crops, and the amount of rainfall restricts the development level of agricultural production, so it is necessary to "predict rain". At this time, a unified standard rain gauge became an urgent need. At present, the earliest existing standard rain gauge in the world was issued during the Qianlong period. It is still preserved in places such as Daegu and Incheon in South Korea. One of them is placed on a stone platform engraved with "Made in May of the Qianlong Gengyin Year". The cylinder is made of brass, and the outer wall is engraved with "Jinying rain gauge, one foot five inches high, seven inches in diameter, made in the Daoguang Dingyou Year, weighing eleven catties", and the bottom of the cylinder is engraved with "Entering the fan, communicating, and singing, then the envoy knows". This kind of rain gauge is similar to the rain gauge used in existing meteorological stations. The Southern Song Dynasty ci "Shu Shu Jiu Zhang" mentions "Tianchi measuring rain", and the described "Tianchi basin" is considered one of the earliest recorded rain gauges in ancient China. In terms of method, it also adopts "the amount of rain obtained on the flat ground" to measure rainwater, which can be called the earliest rain measurement method in the world. China also discovered a book album "Xiang Yu Shu" (Book of Predicting Rain) extracted from ancient books' experience in observing the sky. It is known as the first predictive meteorological classic in ancient China, and so far, it is the earliest book summarizing weather experience in the history of world meteorological science. Unfortunately, we cannot determine the real author of this book, but can only infer that it may have been compiled by a person named Huang Zifa during the end of the Sui Dynasty and the beginning of the Tang Dynasty. However, many "experience in observing the sky" recorded in it still have reference value today. It also first put forward the meteorological theory of predicting the weather through the "24 solar terms" in writing. The Prototype of the Lightning Rod is "Fish-Tail Copper Tile" Most people know that Benjamin Franklin invented the lightning rod, but they may not know that there was a kind of "fish-tail copper tile" in ancient China, which could also prevent fire caused by lightning. During the reign of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty, the Boliang Hall caught fire due to lightning. After reconstruction, Emperor Wu was worried about another lightning disaster, so he accepted the suggestion of a warlock and placed a fish-tail-shaped copper tile on the roof, thinking that this could prevent lightning disasters. This fish-tail copper tile is the prototype of the lightning rod in the shape of a chiwei (a mythical animal). Later, a Song Dynasty person recorded in the book "Tai Ping Yu Lan": "According to the Tang Hui Yao, after the disaster of the Han Xiangliang Hall, a sorcerer from Yue said, 'There is a fish dragon in the sea, with a tail like a chi, which stirs up waves and is prone to rain', so its image was made on the tail to suppress fire." The "fish dragon" mentioned in the text is the predecessor of "chiwen". Chiwen is also called aolong in folk, which belongs to water and is believed to be able to ward off evil spirits and fire. From the unearthed documents and some Han Dynasty clay sculptures, it can be seen that Han Dynasty buildings generally used bird-shaped and fish-shaped chiwen ornaments, and their shapes continued to change later. But their common feature is that there are several iron tips pointing to the sky, which can be used to avoid lightning. In 1688, a French traveler, Chambrier de Magellan, mentioned a detail in his book "New Things in China": "At both ends of the Chinese roof ridge, there is a raised dragon head, and the dragon's mouth spits out a tortuous metal tongue, which is then led into the ground along the iron wire, thus avoiding the building from being destroyed by lightning." Such expressions and evolutions connect chiwei with modern lightning rods. In the buildings of the Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, the more widely used lightning protection artifact was the "Leigong column" (Thunder God column). It was also the most widely used lightning protection device in ancient China. It is a relatively short column used in two types of buildings: hip roof and pyramidal roof. They are usually made of some special woods, such as nanmu, pine, cypress, etc., which have good conductivity, and some are made of metal.