In the vast and boundless universe, the Earth shines like a bright pearl, holding countless mysteries and challenges. Earthquakes, as common yet elusive natural disasters on our planet, have long plagued humanity. Despite living in an era of highly advanced technology with numerous sophisticated technical means at our disposal, the accurate prediction of earthquakes remains an unsolved mystery. However, this does not mean that Earth Sciences are of no value. As a fundamental discipline studying the Earth’s structure, formation, and evolution, Earth Sciences encompass multiple sub - fields and hold crucial significance for human cognition, wealth creation, and rule - making. Meanwhile, the development of Earth System Science has provided us with new perspectives and methods to better understand the Earth and address various challenges. Let us delve into the mysteries of Earth Sciences together, exploring its efforts and achievements in earthquake prediction, Earth system research, and other areas, as well as the opportunities and challenges it faces in the future. ### 01 The Dilemma of Earthquake Prediction The recent frequent earthquakes in Hefei have once again made people acutely aware of the unpredictability of earthquakes as a natural disaster. In this highly technologized era, even though we have made remarkable progress in many fields and possess advanced technologies such as real - time satellite tracking of global climate change and supercomputer simulation of complex natural phenomena, earthquakes still remain a mystery that is difficult to accurately forecast. Currently, the earthquake early warning technology mastered by humans mainly utilizes the difference in propagation speed between P - waves (primary waves) and S - waves (secondary waves). Whenever an earthquake occurs, these two "messengers" start a race. P - waves travel faster but cause less damage, while S - waves move slower but bring significantly greater destruction. Based on this principle, the earthquake early warning system captures P - waves and issues an alert before S - waves arrive, striving to gain precious time for people to take refuge. However, the duration of this early warning depends on the distance between people and the earthquake’s epicenter. The closer the distance, the shorter the alert time; the farther the distance, the more preparation time people have. Even so, people still aspire to accurately predict earthquakes days, weeks, or even months in advance to better cope with this disaster. Scientists have conducted extensive research in earthquake prediction and proposed a variety of prediction methods. These range from studying the relationship between static stress changes and earthquake triggering, observing variations in underground radon concentrations, analyzing physical signals before earthquakes, monitoring ionospheric disturbances, to using surface observation and exploring machine learning approaches — a multi - pronged effort. Nevertheless, due to the complexity of the Earth’s crust, earthquakes usually involve large - scale tectonic movements and long - term stress accumulation, and this process is not linear. Factors such as rock layers, fault zones, and pressure conditions in the crust all affect the pattern of stress release, making it extremely difficult to predict the timing and location of earthquakes. At the same time, the source of an earthquake lies deep beneath the Earth’s surface, making direct observation of these deep - seated processes nearly impossible. Additionally, the uncertainty of earthquake precursor phenomena greatly increases the difficulty of prediction. Although scientists have observed potential early warning signals such as changes in radon gas concentration, abnormal electromagnetic waves before earthquakes, and crustal deformation, these phenomena do not appear before every earthquake, and their intensity, occurrence time, and duration follow no fixed patterns. Furthermore, earthquakes are the result of the combined action of multiple factors and belong to a highly nonlinear system, similar to chaotic phenomena. Minimal changes can lead to completely different outcomes, making it difficult for scientists to find clear critical points to predict the occurrence of earthquakes. Existing technical means also have limitations. Although machine learning and big data technologies show potential in earthquake prediction, they are highly dependent on historical data. However, earthquakes themselves are low - frequency, high - damage natural phenomena, and accumulating sufficient valid data is extremely challenging, which restricts the optimization of prediction models. ### 02 Basic Methods for Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting Research #### 1. Seismogeological Method The seismogeological method predicts the possible location and intensity of earthquakes by analyzing the geological environment and tectonic activities. Major earthquakes often occur in geologically active areas, especially near regions with intense tectonic movements or fault zones. The larger the volume of rock affected by tectonic activities and the greater the rock strength, the stronger the earthquake may be; the faster the tectonic movement speed and the weaker the rock strength, the higher the earthquake frequency may be. However, due to the long geological time scale, it is difficult to accurately predict the timing of an earthquake relying solely on the seismogeological method. Therefore, it is necessary to combine it with other methods for comprehensive judgment. #### 2. Seismic Statistical Method Based on rock layer dislocation and the inhomogeneity of Earth materials, the seismic statistical method calculates the probability of earthquake occurrence by analyzing a large amount of seismic data. Yet this method faces certain challenges. The uncertainty of local weak points makes it difficult to determine the location, and the interference of unknown factors reduces the accuracy of extrapolation. Moreover, the effectiveness of this method depends on the abundance of seismic data. In China, due to the relatively rich seismic data, the statistical method plays a certain role in earthquake forecasting. However, when data is insufficient, its reliability is greatly compromised. #### 3. Earthquake Precursor Method An earthquake is not an isolated event but a link in tectonic activities. By identifying various types of information that occur before an earthquake, such as small earthquake activities, electromagnetic phenomena, and crustal volume changes, these can be used as precursors to predict earthquakes. However, these precursor phenomena may be interfered with by multiple factors, and it is necessary to carefully eliminate interference before accurate observation can be made. At the same time, there are challenges in identifying and observing precursor phenomena, as they may only be obvious near the epicenter, whose location is usually unknown. Nevertheless, accurately identifying these internal changes and phenomena is crucial for earthquake forecasting. ### 03 Earth Sciences Are Not Useless Although earthquake prediction is fraught with difficulties, it by no means implies that Earth Sciences are useless. As a fundamental discipline studying the Earth’s structure, formation, and evolution, Earth Sciences cover an extremely wide range, including geography, geology, geochemistry, geophysics, space physics, atmospheric science, oceanography, and environmental science, among other sub - fields. The object of its study is a complex and vast system, spanning tens of thousands of miles and with a time scale of hundreds of millions of years. In terms of cognition, Earth Sciences have promoted the development of the theory of evolution. In the early 19th century, the British geologist Charles Lyell put forward the idea in *Principles of Geology* that the Earth’s evolution is a gradual process, which laid a solid foundation for Darwin’s theory of evolution. By accurately determining the age of the Earth and studying fossil records, Earth scientists have revealed the gradual evolution process of life forms. These discoveries have helped humans answer the fundamental questions of "Who are we? Where do we come from? Where are we going?" on a broader temporal and spatial scale. Meanwhile, in the mid - 20th century, the proposal of the plate tectonics theory revolutionized people’s understanding of continents and oceans. The discovery of phenomena such as continental rifting and drift, and seafloor spreading not only changed geographical cognition but also opened up possibilities for humans to explore unknown fields, driving profound changes in societies and lifestyles worldwide. In terms of wealth creation, Earth Sciences have facilitated the Industrial Revolution. Energy is the cornerstone of industrial development, and Earth Sciences play a key role in the discovery and development of energy resources. Coal triggered the First Industrial Revolution, oil drove the Second Industrial Revolution, the Third Industrial Revolution relied on key elements such as uranium, germanium, silicon, lithium, and rare earths, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution depends on new energy sources and energy metals. The theory of continental petroleum generation proposed by Chinese scientists broke the notion that "China is poor in oil" and led to the discovery of the Daqing and Shengli oilfields, laying a solid foundation for the establishment of China’s modern industrial system. In addition, the mineralization theory in geology provides theoretical support for the discovery of large - scale mineral resources. In the early days of the People’s Republic of China, geological prospecting provided important guarantees for national economic development. During the "First Five - Year Plan" period, half of the investment in key national construction projects was used for the development of resource - based cities. These cities thrived due to mineral resources and made significant contributions to the establishment of China’s independent and complete industrial system. In terms of rule - making, Earth Sciences address climate change and promote sustainable development. Research on climate change by Earth scientists, such as Edward Lorenz’s proposal of the "Butterfly Effect" and Wallace Broecker’s prediction of global warming, has provided a scientific basis for addressing climate change. This research has promoted the advocacy of low - carbon and green lifestyles worldwide, serving as the foundation for countries to formulate environmental protection policies and agreements and advancing global sustainable development. At the same time, through their understanding of the laws of resource distribution, geologists provide references for infrastructure construction during the industrialization process. For example, they can predict the distribution of large mineral deposits based on geological structures and stratigraphic conditions, offering scientific support for the rational layout of factories and transportation networks, which has greatly promoted industrialization. Currently, the cutting - edge research in Earth Sciences that has attracted global attention involves fields such as geography, atmospheric science, and planetary geology, with the monitoring and prediction of natural disasters being one of the important research directions. With the continuous advancement of technology, the day when earthquakes can be predicted may not be too far away. By integrating interdisciplinary methods, utilizing advanced instruments, and conducting big data analysis, scientists are gradually uncovering the mystery of earthquake prediction, providing more reliable guarantees for the safety and sustainable development of human society. ### 04 The Development Course of Earth System Science #### 1. Historical Review ##### (1) Germination Period The germination of Earth System Science can be traced back to the second half of the 18th century. In *Theory of the Earth*, the Scottish geologist James Hutton proposed that the Earth is a system and put forward the idea of long - term geological evolution that "all things form a complex system, creating a dynamically changing world". This laid the foundation for modern geology and provided theoretical support for the subsequent development of Earth System Science. In the 19th century, the German geographer Alexander von Humboldt put forward the concept that "nature is an organic whole", which served as an ideological source for the development of system theory in Earth System Science. ##### (2) Establishment Period Since the 1970s - 1980s, the establishment of the plate tectonics theory has driven the rapid development of solid Earth Science, posing challenges to surface Earth Science. To address this challenge, surface Earth scientists clearly put forward the viewpoint that there is an interaction between Earth material processes and biological activities, thereby forming the concept of Earth System Science. In 1983, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States proposed the concept of Earth System Science, and in 1988, it published the monograph *Earth System Science*, which systematically expounded on the viewpoints of the Earth system and Earth System Science. Since then, countries such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan have successively formulated relevant research plans to promote the vigorous development of this discipline. The Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany and the German Research Foundation jointly planned and formulated the "Geotechnical Engineering" research plan, and the Natural Environment Research Council of the United Kingdom proposed the "Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System Plan". ##### (3) China’s Actions Chinese meteorologists such as Ye Duzheng, guided by Earth System Science, began to carry out pre - research on global change in China starting from 1987. The Department of Earth Sciences of the National Natural Science Foundation of China formulated a strategy for priority funding areas. Chinese marine geologists such as Wang Pinxian led the compilation of *China’s Earth System Science Development Strategy 2035* and proposed three research directions that may become breakthroughs. #### 2. Current Situation After more than 40 years of development, Earth System Science has become one of the important directions leading the development of Earth Sciences in the 21st century. The Earth system consists of the solid Earth system, the surface Earth system, and the solar - terrestrial space system. Currently, domestic and international research on Earth System Science focuses on the surface Earth system, emphasizing the impact of biological activities and human activities on the surface Earth system. #### 3. Development Process Characterized by globality, unity, as well as a holistic view, a systematic view, and multi - temporal and spatial scales, the development process of Earth System Science includes five stages: the construction of a theoretical framework, the strengthening of interdisciplinary cooperation, the establishment of observation networks, the improvement of simulation and prediction capabilities, and the expansion of connotation and extension. In terms of the construction of the theoretical framework, by integrating interdisciplinary research results, the mechanism of interconnection and interaction between various components of the Earth system is proposed, while observation technology and numerical simulation technology continue to advance. In terms of interdisciplinary cooperation, the international scientific community has established various interdisciplinary research institutions and projects to provide support and guarantees for the development of Earth System Science. In terms of observation networks, a global observation network has been established to provide first - hand data for research. In terms of simulation and prediction capabilities, Earth system models have been constructed to predict future change trends. In terms of the expansion of connotation and extension, the research scope has expanded inward from the surface Earth system to the solid Earth system and outward to the solar - terrestrial space system. #### 4. Important Research Progress A series of important progress has been made in the field of Earth System Science research, mainly reflected in ten aspects: climate system research, global change research, the development of geomicrobiology, the exploration of the deep sea and polar regions, research on the Earth’s internal structure and composition, research on plate tectonics and mantle convection, the revelation of magnetosphere - ionosphere - thermosphere coupling processes, the improvement of space weather monitoring and early warning systems, the advancement of Earth observation technology, and the research and development of surface Earth system numerical models. These progresses have deepened people’s understanding of the Earth system and its components, providing a scientific basis for addressing global environmental changes. ### Conclusion The development of Earth Sciences has evolved from the subdivision of disciplines to their integration, achieving outstanding results in the field of Earth System Science. In the future, it faces opportunities and challenges such as original innovation, integrated innovation, method innovation, concept innovation, and international cooperation in introduction, digestion, absorption, and re - innovation. In terms of original innovation, the advancement of observation technology and data processing capabilities has provided rich materials and possibilities for innovation. In terms of integrated innovation, it is reflected in the cross - integration of multiple disciplines, the integrated sharing of observation data, and the in - depth integration of models and data. In terms of method innovation, new observation technologies, simulation technologies, and data analysis methods provide technical support for research. In terms of concept innovation, it emphasizes adopting a holistic and systematic perspective, regarding the Earth as an organic whole for research, which promotes the transformation of ways of thinking and working methods. In terms of international cooperation, by strengthening international cooperation and exchanges, we can learn from advanced international experience and technical means, promoting the rapid development and wide application of Earth System Science. In summary, although Earth Sciences face great challenges in earthquake prediction, they have made important contributions to human society in many fields and are constantly developing and progressing, facing broad opportunities. We should strengthen research on Earth Sciences to better address various challenges in the Earth system and provide scientific and technological support for the sustainable development of humanity.