Lan Fo'an Released an Article to Interpret the 2024 Fiscal New Policies: A Major Innovation in the History of China's Fiscal Macroeconomic Regulation and Control
Time:2025/7/24 View:1187

Recently, the *Qiushi* Journal published a signed article by Lan Fo'an, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Finance, entitled *Scientific Design and Successful Practice of a More Proactive Fiscal Policy*. The article points out that a series of targeted incremental fiscal policies introduced in 2024 represent a major innovation in the history of China's fiscal macro-control. Specifically, these include a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in the quota of local government special bonds to replace existing implicit debts, strengthening support for local governments in defusing debt risks; studying the issuance of special government bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing core tier-1 capital and enhancing their ability to serve the real economy; combining the use of local government special bonds, tax policies and other tools to promote the stabilization of the real estate market; and increasing support and protection for key groups to strengthen basic people's livelihood security. The article proposes that in 2025, fiscal authorities should thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the arrangements of this year's *Government Work Report*, focus on key areas and weak links in high-quality development, strengthen fiscal and tax policy support and fund guarantees, implement precise policies with sustained efforts, and fully release the effectiveness of fiscal policies. In preventing and defusing risks in key areas: - In accordance with the principles of scientific classification and precise replacement, supervise and guide local governments in replacing implicit debts to achieve early results through early efforts. - Accelerate the reform and transformation of local financing platforms, strengthen budget management of government expenditure items and government investment projects, and resolutely prevent the accumulation of new implicit debts. - Urgently issue the first batch of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to actively support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing core tier-1 capital and consolidate and enhance their stable operation capabilities. - Adhere to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles, and collaboratively promote risk disposal and transformation of small and medium-sized financial institutions. - Promote the use of special bonds for recycling idle land reserves and purchasing existing commercial housing for indemnificatory housing, helping the real estate market stabilize. Finance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance. Since the new era, facing the complex domestic and international development environment, General Secretary Xi Jinping has attached great importance to fiscal work, set the tone and direction for fiscal work, personally made decisions and deployed a series of major fiscal policies, which have effectively promoted stable economic operation and maintained overall social stability. The design and practice of China's fiscal policies in the new era are a vivid embodiment of Xi Jinping Thought on Economics in the fiscal field. In the practice of fiscal policies, we have deeply realized that by adhering to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Economics and resolutely implementing the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, China's economic development will overcome all obstacles and challenges. We must strengthen the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to propel China's economy forward like a giant ship breaking through waves. I. Significant Effects of Incremental Fiscal Policies and Other Package Measures The year 2024 was an extraordinary period in China's development, especially in the second and third quarters when the economy faced significant downward pressure. At this critical juncture, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, resolutely deploying a package of incremental policies, which promoted a significant economic rebound, effectively boosted social confidence, not only facilitating the achievement of annual goals but also laying a solid foundation for this year's development. Fiscal authorities conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, while strengthening the implementation of existing policies, introduced a series of targeted incremental policies, providing strong support for effectively responding to risks and challenges and successfully completing the main goals and tasks of economic and social development for the year. A one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in the quota of local government special bonds to replace existing implicit debts, strengthening support for local governments in defusing debt risks. Currently, the 2 trillion yuan replacement quota for 2024 has been fully issued and basically replaced, and the issuance progress of the 2025 replacement quota has exceeded 70%, with the "multi-pronged" policy effects gradually emerging. From the perspective of replacement bonds issued in 2024, the average interest rate has dropped by more than 2.5 percentage points, and it is estimated that interest expenses will be reduced by more than 200 billion yuan over five years. Promoting the conversion of implicit debts into explicit ones not only improves the transparency of local debts but also facilitates strengthened unified debt management and accelerates the reform and transformation of financing platforms. More importantly, it frees up more financial resources and policy space for local governments, which can help unlock local debt chains, resolve "triangular debts," "interlinked debts," and other debt-related disputes involving the public, improve the development environment, and enhance development momentum. Study the issuance of special government bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing core tier-1 capital and enhancing their ability to serve the real economy. Large state-owned commercial banks are the main force in serving the real economy in China's financial system and a cornerstone for maintaining financial stability. Currently, China's major state-owned commercial banks have stable asset quality and sound operations. This capital injection is a proactive and forward-looking measure aimed at establishing and improving a capital replenishment mechanism for large state-owned commercial banks, enhancing their ability to provide credit through higher capital adequacy ratios, and better serving the real economy. Combine the use of local government special bonds, tax policies, and other tools to promote the stabilization of the real estate market. Increase the intensity of preferential policies for deed tax in housing transactions, lower the minimum pre - collection rate of land value - added tax, clarify policies on value - added tax and land value - added tax related to the abolition of standards for ordinary and non - ordinary residential properties, and at the same time, in conjunction with relevant departments, introduce policies such as supporting land reserves and purchasing existing commercial housing for indemnificatory housing through special bonds. With the coordinated efforts of fiscal, financial, and land policies, positive changes have occurred in the real estate market, showing a trend of stabilization. Strengthen support and protection for key groups and enhance basic people's livelihood security. Implement the most significant and wide-ranging adjustment to the student financial aid policy system since its establishment, increasing the standards of national scholarships and grants and expanding the policy coverage, raising the national student loan quota and reducing loan interest rates, benefiting over 34 million students. Distribute one-time living allowances to people in difficulty such as extremely poor people and orphans before the National Day, benefiting over 11 million people. The package of incremental policies, including incremental fiscal policies, has achieved significant results in stabilizing growth after their introduction and implementation. In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than in the third quarter. The annual GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth. This year, the policy effects continue to be released. In the first quarter, China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 6.5%, 4.6%, and 4.2% year-on-year respectively, all higher than the annual growth rates of last year, achieving a good start for economic operation. II. Deeply Understanding the Party Central Committee's Ideas and Strategies for Managing State Finances The design and practice of this incremental fiscal policy embody the superb wisdom and adept ability of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core in formulating strategies and making overall plans, and represent a major innovation in the history of China's fiscal macro-control. We must deeply understand the Party Central Committee's ideas and strategies for managing state finances through the integration of theory and practice. First, adhere to systematic design and strengthen policy coordination among multiple goals. Comprehensively consider goals such as stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood, and preventing risks, handle relationships between the present and the long term, needs and possibilities, stock and increment, supply and demand, and local and overall interests, formulate and implement fiscal policies with a reform-oriented mindset, ensure the implementation of fiscal policies with stronger management effectiveness, and promote high-quality economic development with both improved quality and reasonable growth in quantity through overall consideration and consistent efforts. Second, focus on integrated innovation and take multiple measures to form policy synergy. Combine the use of various fiscal and tax tools such as government bonds, fiscal interest subsidies, special funds, and tax incentives to create an optimal policy mix. While implementing structural tax and fee reduction policies and increasing funding guarantees for key areas, additionally arrange government bonds and local government bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing core tier-1 capital, recycling idle land and existing commercial housing, and implementing consumer goods trade-in programs. Strengthen coordination with monetary and industrial policies, take decisive and concerted actions to form the optimal policy combination and enhance overall policy effectiveness. Third, highlight precise policy implementation and drive the smooth operation of the overall economy through breakthroughs in key areas. Identify key issues restricting economic development, focus resources on formulating and implementing impactful and leveraged measures to achieve a "domino effect" where solving one problem drives overall progress. Focus on the challenge of local government debt reduction, fundamentally change the approach to debt reduction, adhere to overall design and mechanism restructuring, and while proactively defusing risks, support local governments in addressing economic development bottlenecks and fostering new growth drivers to accumulate momentum for high-quality development. Fourth, grasp the intensity and timing of policies to enhance the forward-looking, relevance, and effectiveness of macro-control. In terms of intensity, make full use of policy space, and once a field is identified, provide sufficient support at one time to concentrate financial resources on major undertakings. In terms of timing, seize the window of opportunity, take proactive actions, allocate and disburse funds in a timely manner, accelerate bond issuance and utilization, and promote early policy implementation and effectiveness. In terms of rhythm, make thorough plans, implement step by step, increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts according to circumstances, and maintain sustained efforts. At the same time, closely monitor changes in the situation, strengthen policy reserves, and prepare sufficient policy tools in advance. III. Accurately Grasping the Requirements for Implementing a More Proactive Fiscal Policy Currently, advancing Chinese - style modernization has entered a critical period, and China's development faces a more severe and complex domestic and international environment. Internationally, unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise, especially the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the United States, which have severely impacted the stability of the global economic order and weakened global economic growth momentum. Domestically, insufficient effective demand, especially weak consumption, the foundation for sustained economic recovery needs to be further consolidated, and some local governments face fiscal difficulties at the grassroots level. "Challenges arise every year, but we have always developed through trials and grown stronger through tests." Over the years, we have successfully coped with a series of major risks and challenges such as the international financial crisis, China - US trade frictions, and the COVID - 19 pandemic. Compared with the past, China's economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength has further enhanced, the inherent stability of economic operation has become more solid, the multiple advantages of economic development have become more prominent, and experience in macro - control and economic governance has become more abundant. To cope with potential shocks, fiscal policy always has contingency measures. At the end of 2023, China's total government debt across all sectors was 85 trillion yuan, with a government debt ratio of 67.5%, significantly lower than the average government debt ratios of G20 and G7 countries, which stood at 118.2% and 123.4% respectively, indicating substantial room for additional borrowing. In recent years, local government debt, especially special bonds, has supported the construction of numerous transportation, water conservancy, energy, and other projects, forming a large amount of effective assets, many of which can generate sustainable returns, ensuring sufficient sources for debt repayment. Ample reserve tools, significant policy space, and in particular, the scientific methodology of fiscal macro - control formed in practice, are the sources of confidence for us to do a good job in current fiscal work. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that in 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy should be implemented with sustained and stronger efforts. This is a major decision and arrangement made by the Party Central Committee from a strategic and overall perspective, which not only fully considers the need to achieve annual targets but also focuses on enhancing medium - and long - term development momentum, reflecting the relevance and forward - looking nature of macro - control. This also requires us to further introduce new and more powerful fiscal policies on the basis of ensuring the implementation and effectiveness of last year's package of incremental policies, and maintain consistent efforts. Currently, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy requires grasping the following work requirements. In terms of policy goals, take economic and social development goals as an organic whole, increase unconventional counter - cyclical adjustment efforts, raise the deficit rate, maintain the necessary expenditure intensity, and at the same time vigorously optimize the expenditure structure, make careful plans, and ensure expenditures in key areas while reducing non - essential ones to achieve dynamic balance among multiple goals. This year's deficit rate is set at 4%, 1 percentage point higher than last year, and the deficit scale reaches 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year, both of which are the highest in recent years. In terms of tool arrangements, make comprehensive use of policy tools such as government bonds, fiscal interest subsidies, special funds, and tax incentives, strengthen coordination among fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies, enhance policy consistency, and implement a combination of policies. This year, new government bonds amount to 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan over last year, including local government special bonds for promoting investment, ultra - long - term special government bonds for supporting major projects and new infrastructure and new energy, and special government bonds for supporting large state - owned commercial banks in replenishing core tier - 1 capital, adopting multiple measures to prevent risks. In terms of key areas for policy implementation, focus on weak links restricting high - quality development and bottlenecks in economic circulation, increase support for improving people's livelihood, promoting consumption, and enhancing development momentum. The national general public budget expenditures on education, science and technology, social security and employment, and health are all arranged to increase by more than 5%. At the same time, the central government will increase transfer payments to local governments, arranging 10.34 trillion yuan, an 8.4% increase on a comparable basis, including 2.73 trillion yuan in balanced transfer payments and 479.5 billion yuan in awards and subsidies for county - level basic financial capacity guarantee mechanisms, effectively enhancing local financial capacity. In terms of rhythm control, adhere to steady and rapid progress, race against various uncertainties, implement determined policies and fund arrangements as early as possible, and promote implementation with a sense of urgency; for policies yet to be introduced, step up research and preparation, communicate well with relevant departments, and introduce them in a timely manner when needed to align policy implementation with market expectations and enhance the sense of gain for all parties. In addition, while designing fiscal policies, we must continuously strengthen our "internal capabilities" and further improve the efficiency of fund use and the effectiveness of fiscal policies through deepening reform and strengthening management. The current focus is to organize and implement pilot projects for scientific fiscal management in accordance with the deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee on deepening the reform of the fiscal and tax system, focusing on tasks such as strengthening the coordination of fiscal resources and budgets, implementing the requirement for government agencies to practice frugality, deepening zero - based budget reform, and increasing financial and accounting supervision, so as to comprehensively improve the systematic, refined, standardized, and legalized level of fiscal management. IV. Fully Releasing the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policies in Promoting High - quality Development Preparedness ensures success, while unpreparedness leads to failure. Currently, the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the United States on all trading partners continue to cause global market volatility, the adverse impact on China's economic development is deepening, and the economic operation faces new situations and challenges. It is necessary to further implement a more proactive fiscal policy to effectively counteract the adverse impact of external risks on China's economy. Fiscal authorities should thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the arrangements of this year's *Government Work Report*, focus on key areas and weak links in high - quality development, strengthen fiscal and tax policy support and fund guarantees, implement precise policies with sustained efforts, and fully release the effectiveness of fiscal policies. Vigorously boost consumption. Consumption is an important part of expanding domestic demand, a key means to improve people's livelihood, and a lasting driver of the economy. This year, the central government will allocate substantial funds to promote coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides and launch a "package" of consumption - promoting policies. Allocate 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special government bond funds to support the trade - in of consumer goods, doubling the fund scale compared to last year, further expanding the scope of subsidies, and directly reducing consumers' shopping costs. Attach importance to combining improving people's livelihood with promoting consumption, appropriately raise pension levels, increase the per capita fiscal subsidy standard for basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents, issue child - rearing subsidies, expand the scale of student financial aid, and enhance consumption capacity and willingness. Link with financial policies, provide interest subsidies for personal consumption loans in key areas and loans to business entities in the consumer sector, and expand consumption space. Allocate awards and subsidies to support local governments in promoting new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and create more new consumption hotspots. Actively expand effective investment. China still has huge potential and space for investment. The key is to align with the needs of high - quality development and combine "investment in things" with "investment in people". This year, the scale of government investment will continue to expand, with funds from different channels arranged in a coordinated manner with distinct focuses. Issue ultra - long - term special government bonds, with 800 billion yuan used to support "two major" (major national strategic projects and major projects that benefit people's livelihood) construction with greater intensity, and 200 billion yuan used to support equipment renewal with expanded scope. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan, and a new mechanism for special bond management will be established, including implementing "negative list" management for investment areas and carrying out pilot projects of "self - review and self - issuance", giving local governments more autonomy. At the same time, guide and encourage private investment through government investment and policy incentives. Accelerate the cultivation and development of new productive forces. Scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation are the basic paths for developing new productive forces. This year, the central government will further increase investment in science and technology, with central government expenditure on science and technology increasing by 10% compared to last year. Funds will be focused on

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